If the current turmoil in the realms of world trade, markets, and politics has taught us anything, it might be this:
The prediction game is not for the faint-hearted, and the yellow brick road to the future is paved with banana skins.
Who knows what will have happened by the time I wake up tomorrow, let alone in 5 years!
It was in that frame of mind that I read the 5 Predictions in Sage’s “Accounting 2030” report, titled "Forecasting the Next Frontier in AI-Powered Transformation”, based on a 2024 research study commissioned by Sage and conducted by Forrester Consulting.
I invite you to download and read the full report, as this article just cherry-picks some of the main findings and predictions. I’ve also thrown in a few side comments about my reaction, which may well differ from your own responses. Perhaps we can reconvene in 2030 and compare notes!
Introduction
The report is based on survey responses from “over 2,300 finance and accounting decision makers in SMBs across the globe”.
The claim in a nutshell:
Business accounting stands on the brink of a transformative era, driven by the rapid integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI)”, and this will redefine the role of accountants.
My reaction: Perhaps, but just how rapid?
You can stand on the brink of something for a long time before either teetering over the edge, or stepping back from it!
Prediction 01 - Accounting will usher in a new era of ethical AI leadership
The claim in a nutshell: The ethical use of AI will be non-negotiable by 2030. Leading SMBs will set industry standards to ensure AI is used transparently and responsibly, with ethical considerations at the forefront of all technological advancements in AI accounting.
My reaction: Media and social media companies are abandoning fact-checking. Respect for science and objective truth is in decline. Leaders on multiple continents seem more interested in their “war on woke” than serious reforms.
Against this backdrop, predicting a golden age of ethical leadership in anything requires quite a leap of faith!
Prediction 02 - There will be a total overhaul of risk management
The claim in a nutshell: By 2030, continuous monitoring by AI tools will improve the efficiency of anomaly detection by at least 21%, reduce incidents of financial errors and fraud by over 95% – and improve compliance while reinforcing trust in financial reporting.
More than 90% of businesses will employ AI tools for continuous monitoring and anomaly detection by 2030.
My reaction: My scepticism is not so much with the general direction, but with the predicted speed and ubiquity of the change. I’m inclined to stick with my closing remarks from our article last year, AI Accounting: A Realist’s View:
AI will creep into the lives of accountants at vastly different rates. In the short to medium term, many of the more exotic applications will largely remain the domain of the top end of town.
Prediction 03 - The monthly close becomes a relic of the past
The claim in a nutshell: By 2030, 75% of businesses globally will have fully transitioned from the traditional monthly close to dynamic, continuous accounting practices.
My reaction: Last year’s Orchid article Continuous Accounting: A Realist’s View, so we are certainly aware of the benefits. Still, with my Realist’s hat on, I’d suggest that:
75% of ALL businesses globally (or just of those polled)? And FULLY transitioned? That seems like a big call!
Prediction 04 - Real-time data will fuel proactive decision-making
The claim in a nutshell: By 2030, over 70% of businesses will integrate real-time data streams into their financial decision-making processes, meaning that reliance on historical data alone for financial decisions will become obsolete.
My reaction: Once again, I agree with the general direction, but have my doubts about the depth, breadth, and speed of the transition. To be fair, they acknowledged the “garbage in, garbage out” point raised in our AI Accounting blog by saying:
Businesses will need to commit to making sure data is consistently clean, well-integrated across systems, and accessible.
Prediction 05 - Accountants will welcome new opportunities to build expertise
The claim in a nutshell: By leveraging AI-driven insights, there will be a 50% reduction in the time accountants spend on routine tasks by 2030, allowing them to focus on strategic analysis and decision-making.
My reaction: 5 years can seem like an eternity to some – and the younger you are the longer it may seem – but is the world, and the accounting profession in particular, really ready to move that quickly? Which brings me to a more hopeful closing observation. Putting aside the hype:
The thirst to benefit from AI advances is real, and those trusted advisors like Sage Business Partners with the right expertise have a great opportunity to help business accountants on that journey.
